Forecasting

Many countries lack a clear picture of the commodities (medicines, vaccines, contraceptives, diagnostic kits, laboratory reagents, medical devices and other supplies and consumables) required as part of the national scale-up of reproductive, maternal, neonatal and child health care programmes. Producing an accurate forecast is a crucial step in implementing effective programmes but poses several challenges, including: ensuring stakeholders reach consensus on assumptions (e.g., the rate of scale-up for people to be covered); collecting reliable data on people to be covered and the commodities needed for effective care per episode; and correctly and efficiently using appropriate, best practice tools for quantification. These tools should cover the following steps: determining the scope of the forecast; identifying required data elements; agreement and validation of assumptions; creating and analyzing forecast scenarios; and regular analysis and review of the accuracy of forecasts.